Video to drive 4x global broadband growth
The proportion of peer to peer file sharing traffic is about the only thing that will drop over the next few years as internet traffic, especially on mobile devices quadruples to 1000 exabytes by 2015, according to Cisco research.
Cisco said P2P traffic would drop from 40% of consumer traffic on the internet in 2010 to 16% by 2015. But that still means a 60% growth in actual traffic from less about 96 exabytes a year to around 154 exabytes.
Cisco said the three billion people with internet access would use some 15 billion devices to send 966 exabytes of data a year, four times the present traffic volume.
It expected the average fixed broadband speed to rise from 7Mbps in 2010 to 28Mbps in 2015, which would help to carry some one million video minutes every second. It said global IP traffic would rise to over 80 exabytes a month in 2015 from just over 20 exabytes a month in 2010.
Asia Pacific would generate the most IP traffic (24.1 exabytes per month), passing North America with 22.3 exabytes per month. But the fastest growing market would be the Middle East and Africa with a 52% compound annual growth rate, faster than Latin America with its 48% or sevenfold growth.
Cisco said consumer video would be the primary growth driver. The number of online video users would double to over one billion by 2015, it said.
Many would be using non-PC devices such as tablets, smartphones and connected TVs, as the PC’s share of traffic slipped from 97% in 2010 to 87% in 2015, and the number of IP-enabled TV sets rose.
Cisco predicted that global mobile data traffic would increase 26 times from 2010 to 2015, to 6.3 exabytes per month, or 75 exabytes a year.
Cisco has provided a widget here so that anyone can play with its data.